RSI Momentum v2
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Total Return
+2699.3%
CAGR
+68.8%
Sharpe
1.41
Max Drawdown
-55.0%
Annual Vol
44.3%
Win Rate
54.6%
Starting Capital
$50K
Fees
7bps RT
Trades
~1,255
Timeframe
Weekly
Max Leverage
~1.3x
Robustness
4/5
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Strategy
RSI-based cross-sectional ranking with a trend filter — only ranks RSI for coins above their 50MA or with extremely low RSI.
Signal Construction
  • RSI: 14-day relative strength index
  • Trend filter: coin price > 50-day MA
  • Filtered RSI: If above 50MA OR RSI < 30, use actual RSI. Otherwise, set to neutral (50)
  • This prevents shorting oversold coins in uptrends and longing overbought coins in downtrends
Portfolio Construction
  • Positions: Long top 10 by filtered RSI, short bottom 10
  • Weighting: Equal weight within each leg
  • Rebalance: Weekly (Monday 00:00 UTC) (every 7 days)
Risk Management
  • Vol target: ~40% annualised (volatility-scaled) — leverage = 0.40 / realised_vol_60d
  • Leverage range: Clipped between 0.1x and 3.0x
  • Regime filter: Goes flat when BTC is below its 200-day moving average
Universe
Binance Futures · Top 50 by 30d median vol · $15M+ · Spike ratio < 2.0 · 90d listed · Stablecoins & wrapped excluded · Deterministic tie-breaking · Equal-weight positions
Execution
Technical · Long/Short · 7bps RT fees · Weekly rebalance · Vol-targeted leverage
Result
$50,000 → $1,399,654 over 6.4 years
Equity Curve — $50K start (2020 – 2026)

These results are based on historical backtesting and are hypothetical in nature. They do not represent actual trading results. Backtested performance does not account for real-world factors including slippage beyond fee assumptions, exchange downtime, liquidity constraints, market impact, and execution delays. Actual results may differ materially.

Drawdown
Robustness Checks — 4/5 passed
Sample Size
1255 trades — statistically robust sample
Regime Testing
Profitable in 5/7 years tested; 2022 bear market: -42.1%
Decay Analysis
No decay — first half avg Sharpe 0.97, second half 1.11 (114% retention)
Monte Carlo
Not significant (p=0.636) — 63.6% of random timing strategies produced similar results. Returns may reflect market beta rather than timing skill
Walk-Forward OOS
IS Sharpe 0.99 (2020-2022), OOS Sharpe 1.53 (2023-2026) — 155% retention on unseen data
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Monthly heatmaps and trade breakdowns are available on the Researcher plan.
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Monthly Returns
Best & Worst Trades
Top 20 Trades
#CoinEntry → ExitReturn
1AXS (LONG)2021-06-23 → 2021-08-04+1269.4%
2ZEC (LONG)2025-09-26 → 2025-12-10+642.1%
3BNB (LONG)2021-02-03 → 2021-03-10+446.8%
4ETC (LONG)2021-03-26 → 2021-05-19+435.7%
5AVAX (LONG)2021-01-13 → 2021-02-17+382.4%
6ADA (LONG)2020-03-30 → 2020-07-22+341.8%
7GALA (LONG)2021-11-17 → 2021-12-08+337.5%
81000SHIB (LONG)2021-09-22 → 2021-10-20+325.6%
9DOGE (LONG)2021-04-14 → 2021-05-12+312.5%
10FIL (LONG)2021-03-10 → 2021-04-14+301.2%
11CHZ (LONG)2021-03-03 → 2021-03-10+282.5%
12DOLO (LONG)2025-07-23 → 2025-08-13+269.7%
13PENGU (LONG)2025-06-23 → 2025-07-16+264.7%
14AAVE (LONG)2021-01-13 → 2021-02-17+253.6%
15XRP (LONG)2024-11-14 → 2024-12-04+242.0%
161000PEPE (LONG)2024-02-28 → 2024-03-13+239.6%
17M (LONG)2025-09-03 → 2025-09-24+198.3%
18OP (LONG)2023-01-04 → 2023-02-15+194.7%
19WLD (LONG)2024-02-14 → 2024-02-28+186.5%
20TRX (LONG)2021-03-13 → 2021-04-14+181.8%
Bottom 20 Trades
#CoinEntry → ExitReturn
1ASTER (SHORT)2025-09-20 → 2025-09-24-92.0%
2ZORA (SHORT)2025-07-26 → 2025-07-30-78.7%
3DASH (LONG)2025-11-05 → 2025-12-17-68.5%
4STRK (LONG)2025-11-20 → 2025-12-31-68.2%
5BCH (SHORT)2020-01-03 → 2020-02-12-67.3%
6AAVE (LONG)2021-05-19 → 2021-06-23-67.0%
7SNX (LONG)2025-10-15 → 2025-11-19-66.8%
8ADA (LONG)2020-02-15 → 2020-03-18-63.2%
9M (SHORT)2025-07-08 → 2025-07-09-61.4%
10XRP (LONG)2021-05-19 → 2021-06-23-59.9%
11GALA (LONG)2022-05-05 → 2022-05-11-59.3%
12TRUMP (SHORT)2025-01-19 → 2025-01-22-59.2%
13IP (SHORT)2025-02-16 → 2025-02-19-58.8%
14LINK (LONG)2020-03-06 → 2020-03-18-58.6%
15FARTCOIN (SHORT)2024-12-23 → 2024-12-25-58.0%
16MON (SHORT)2025-11-23 → 2025-11-26-57.4%
17XLM (LONG)2021-05-12 → 2021-06-16-56.8%
18ETC (LONG)2021-05-07 → 2021-05-19-55.7%
19RESOLV (LONG)2026-01-27 → 2026-02-10-52.9%
20CRV (LONG)2022-05-05 → 2022-05-18-52.7%

Loot-Fi publishes historical backtesting research for educational purposes only. Nothing on Loot-Fi constitutes financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any asset, or an invitation to invest. Past performance in backtesting does not guarantee future results. All trading involves risk, including the loss of your entire investment. You should consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.

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